International Football Rankings

for 4th July 2000

according to the method of Russell Gerrard.

Note that, in the table, 'uncertainty' is intended to be used cumulatively for deciding whether one team is better than another. For example, if the difference between the ratings of two teams is 35, but the total uncertainty is 20+25=45, you could not conclude that one was better than the other.

Pos Country            Rating  Uncertainty 

  1 Brazil              935.3   (13)
  2 Italy               915.8   (29)
  3 France              915.4   (24)
  4 Portugal            912.0   (34)
  5 Spain               895.9   (29)
  6 Czech Republic      891.6   (22)
  7 Argentina           890.5   (21)
  8 Netherlands         888.6   (29)
  9 Norway              884.7   (21)
 10 Yugoslavia (S&M)    876.1   (27)
 11 England             861.8   (24)
 12 Ukraine             858.8   (30)
 13 Greece              855.4   (21)
 14 Sweden              855.0   (29)
 15 Mexico              854.2   (12)
 16 Russia              853.0   (24)
 17 Turkey              852.8   (44)
 18 Croatia             851.0   (17)
 19 Romania             849.2   (24)
 20 Honduras            844.8   (25)
 21 Germany             843.5   (20)
 22 Slovenia            842.8   (29)
 23 Switzerland         840.1   (27)
 24 Scotland            839.8   (26)
 25 Colombia            839.4   (22)
 26 Denmark             838.9   (22)
 27 Iceland             837.3   (30)
 28 Peru                830.6   (27)
 29 Paraguay            827.1   (19)
 30 Kuwait              825.9   (19)
 31 Irish Republic      825.4   (28)
 32 Ecuador             824.9   (24)
 33 Iran                823.6   (13)
 34 Finland             822.2   (22)
 35 Canada              820.2   (29)
 36 Iraq                820.2   (30)
 37 USA                 819.7   (19)
 38 Bolivia             818.7   (23)
 39 Uruguay             817.2   (27)
 40 Poland              815.4   (22)
 41 Chile               814.9   (20)
 42 China               813.8   (20)
 43 Belgium             813.1   (26)
 44 Cameroon            812.4   (28)
 45 Saudi Arabia        811.7   (14)
 46 Australia           809.9   (26)
 47 Slovakia            807.7   (18)
 48 Georgia             806.6   (27)
 49 Latvia              804.8   (26)
 50 Costa Rica          804.8   (31)
 51 Israel              802.5   (25)
 52 South Africa        802.5   (19)
 53 Panama              800.1   (49)
 54 Japan               797.8   (17)
 55 Bulgaria            797.0   (21)
 56 Albania             795.9   (29)
 57 Bosnia-Herzegovina  795.5   (28)
 58 Egypt               794.7   (19)
 59 South Korea         794.4   (15)
 60 Uzbekistan          789.9   (27)
 61 Armenia             789.8   (30)
 62 Morocco             787.6   (22)
 63 Angola              786.4   (27)
 64 Tunisia             783.5   (22)
 65 Austria             782.2   (26)
 66 Cuba                778.7   (26)
 67 Hungary             777.4   (21)
 68 FYR Macedonia       777.4   (34)
 69 Trinidad/Tobago     773.3   (20)
 70 Lithuania           772.9   (25)
 71 New Zealand         765.9   (25)
 72 Algeria             764.7   (33)
 73 Nigeria             762.5   (31)
 74 El Salvador         761.8   (21)
 75 Wales               761.0   (37)
 76 Jamaica             760.0   (13)
 77 Belarus             758.9   (34)
 78 Northern Ireland    758.1   (30)
 79 Estonia             756.8   (17)
 80 Zimbabwe            756.8   (29)
 81 Syria               756.7   (23)
 82 Ivory Coast         755.2   (34)
 83 Senegal             754.4   (24)
 84 Guatemala           754.4   (21)
 85 Guinea              750.6   (31)
 86 Libya               750.1   (39)
 87 Congo DR            748.8   (36)
 88 Haiti               746.4   (22)
 89 Congo               746.1   (41)
 90 Zambia              745.7   (17)
 91 Moldova             745.4   (31)
 92 Mauritius           743.9   (53)
 93 Togo                742.9   (21)
 94 UAE                 737.7   (15)
 95 Ghana               736.9   (33)
 96 Mali                732.1   (31)
 97 Barbados            727.9   (46)
 98 Venezuela           726.4   (29)
 99 Grenada             725.9   (60)
100 Burundi             722.8   (57)
101 Faroe Islands       722.5   (37)
102 Qatar               722.4   (20)
103 Gabon               717.4   (27)
104 Cyprus              716.9   (31)
105 North Korea         716.9   (48)
106 Martinique          715.7   (53)
107 Malawi              715.5   (39)
108 Namibia             713.9   (20)
109 Liberia             713.5   (49)
110 Turkmenistan        713.2   (40)
111 Kenya               712.3   (33)
112 Jordan              710.5   (22)
113 Burkina Faso        709.2   (24)
114 Kazakhstan          708.2   (34)
115 St Vincent & Gr.    708.0   (54)
116 Surinam             707.5   (89)
117 Madagascar          707.5   (78)
118 St Lucia            705.8   (70)
119 Bahrain             703.2   (45)
120 Lebanon             703.1   (21)
121 Mozambique          702.7   (24)
122 Benin               698.0   (114)
123 Central African R   697.1   (172)
124 Guyana              696.4   (84)
125 Andorra             693.8   (37)
126 Yemen               689.1   (104)
127 Sierra Leone        688.5   (74)
128 Gambia              686.3   (71)
129 Cape Verde Is.      683.7   (65)
130 Tajikistan          682.3   (53)
131 Tahiti              681.5   (54)
132 Thailand            681.3   (15)
133 Botswana            681.3   (51)
134 Azerbaijan          679.5   (30)
135 Bermuda             677.5   (71)
136 Niger               676.4   (174)
137 Mauritania          676.4   (97)
138 Oman                676.2   (20)
139 Palestine           675.7   (45)
140 Chad                675.4   (123)
141 Lesotho             675.1   (41)
142 Sudan               674.1   (78)
143 Indonesia           671.8   (28)
144 Uganda              670.6   (48)
145 Tanzania            668.6   (67)
146 Guinea-Bissau       664.7   (101)
147 Malta               658.3   (23)
148 St Kitts/Nevis      654.7   (42)
149 Guadeloupe          652.6   (71)
150 Luxembourg          652.5   (35)
151 Nicaragua           652.3   (97)
152 Fiji                649.7   (49)
153 Ethiopia            644.3   (128)
154 Antigua/Barbuda     643.9   (37)
155 Belize              641.5   (111)
156 French Guiana       640.9   (162)
157 Eritrea             640.2   (59)
158 Swaziland           638.9   (43)
159 Cayman              636.6   (54)
160 Solomon Is.         636.3   (58)
161 Rwanda              631.9   (80)
162 Singapore           627.0   (27)
163 Somalia             626.6   (241)
164 Neth. Antilles      625.0   (100)
165 India               621.2   (21)
166 Kyrgyzstan          620.7   (79)
167 Equatorial Guinea   620.7   (156)
168 Vanuatu             619.9   (66)
169 Hong Kong           615.9   (51)
170 Malaysia            607.6   (26)
171 Taiwan              604.1   (74)
172 Sao Tomé e PrCzai  602.6   (156)
173 Bangladesh          601.6   (33)
174 Dominica            599.1   (56)
175 Vietnam             599.0   (26)
176 New Caledonia       592.7   (92)
177 Liechtenstein       590.3   (33)
178 Dominican Rep.      573.0   (80)
179 Myanmar             572.1   (56)
180 Maldive Is.         549.8   (25)
181 Djibouti            548.6   (134)
182 Sri Lanka           546.4   (38)
183 Aruba               536.4   (116)
184 San Marino          521.5   (50)
185 Papua New Guinea    496.3   (63)
186 Cambodia            495.0   (40)
187 St Maarten          491.7   (219)
188 Nepal               487.0   (37)
189 Pakistan            474.9   (54)
190 Puerto Rico         471.0   (122)
191 Laos                468.6   (48)
192 Macao               455.3   (116)
193 British Virgin I    447.2   (43)
194 Montserrat          442.9   (183)
195 Western Samoa       438.7   (108)
196 Philippines         423.6   (48)
197 Brunei              420.0   (72)
198 Bahamas             419.3   (80)
199 Mongolia            419.1   (137)
200 US Virgin Is.       380.3   (117)
201 Turks & Caicos I    373.6   (183)
202 Tonga               367.8   (83)
203 Anguilla            339.9   (116)
204 Cook Islands        321.3   (82)
205 Bhutan              308.4   (88)
206 American Samoa      221.1   (150)
207 Guam                203.8   (200)
And here is a supplementary list of additional teams whose ratings were felt to be too unreliable for inclusion in the main list

Pos Country            Rating  Uncertainty

  1 Seychelles          613.9   (300)
  2 Zanzibar            599.2   (306)

The method

The major differences between my system and the FIFA system are:
  1. In the FIFA system either both teams score points for playing, or the total number of points awarded is positive, so teams who play a lot of games get a lot of points (unless they play very badly). In my system every game is zero-sum: 5 points for A is -5 points for B.
  2. In the FIFA system new countries start from 0 and work their way up; this works to the detriment of teams they encounter on the way to their rightful position. In my system any team which has played 3 games is entered on the main list in a position which reflects the results of its matches. (Hence Uzbekistan's position.) This document was prepared by Russell Gerrard
    See also my Football Data Sources Page and my home page